Caputo predicts Milei’s reelection, but says he is preparing defenses against an adverse scenario

Argentina’s Economy Minister, Luis Caputo, said he expects Javier Milei to win the 2027 presidential election, but added that his administration is also considering the possibility of an adverse result and pressure on the dollar. In an interview on the Carajo streaming channel, he said his personal forecast does not remove his responsibility to prepare tools to protect the population in other scenarios.

“I think the President wins in every scenario,” Caputo said. At the same time, he said he considers the possibility that he could be wrong and acts as if that were the case. Among the measures he mentioned were buying reserves and seeking a swap, without specifying the amount or the counterparty to such a potential agreement.

The minister also issued a warning directed at the market when referring to an adverse election scenario and financial pressures: “If what I think is going to happen doesn’t happen, we’ll rip their heads off, as we did in October last year.” The remark came in the context of his explanation of preparations for currency risks; on its own, it does not describe a specific measure that has been announced.

What he said about financial tools

La Nación reported that the economic team calculates a potential “shield” of around US$72 billion, comprising swaps, reserve accumulation, and the capacity to intervene in futures markets. That figure combines instruments of different kinds and with different conditions for access: it is not equivalent to liquid dollars available. In the interview, Caputo did not specify the amounts or conditions of the tools he mentioned.

The official linked his economic confidence to fiscal balance, restrictive monetary policy, and expected investment inflows. He also said he expects a greater supply of foreign currency. These are his expectations and his assessment of his administration, not a guarantee about currency-market developments or the future availability of financing.

Brazil: institutional continuity and possible greater affinity

Caputo also discussed Brazil’s presidential election, in which Flávio Bolsonaro came ahead of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round, according to the reports cited. The two are due to face each other in a runoff scheduled for October 25. The minister said that relations between Argentina and Brazil would continue regardless of the outcome, given the countries’ historical, institutional, and commercial ties.

Even so, he said that a potential Bolsonaro victory could facilitate dialogue and cooperation between the governments because of their political affinity. “That improves dialogue, increases the desire to cooperate with each other and work together,” he said. This is Caputo’s forecast about the possible effect of greater political alignment, not a guaranteed outcome for bilateral relations.

The minister also rejected the idea that a potential Brazilian rapprochement with the United States would push Argentina aside in its relationship with Washington. In defending ties with that country, he praised U.S. assistance during previous episodes of currency-market tension. These assessments reflect Caputo’s political interpretation.

The remarks thus combine an election forecast favorable to the governing party with the claim that the Government is considering alternative financial risks. On both issues, the minister expressed expectations and political positions: neither Milei’s reelection nor the course of financial and diplomatic ties is determined by his forecasts.