Snap elections: which Ibex stocks could move with a change of government

The announcement of snap elections for 29 November revived stock-market bets on which companies might benefit—or be adversely affected—if the political complexion of the government changes. The initial reaction was mixed: Berkeley Energía stood out with a rise, while property companies and banks also posted gains. But a single trading session does not confirm a lasting change in trend, and political expectations are not equivalent to decisions already taken.

Berkeley Energía: a bet linked to mining permits

Berkeley Energía was one of the stocks most sensitive to the news. Its shares rose 13.98% at the close of the session and at one point came close to an intraday gain of 20%. Following this move, its cumulative gain in 2026 went, according to the coverage, from just over 10% to 26%.

Investor interest is linked to the expectation that a potential change of government could alter the situation facing the company's projects in Spain. Its best-known initiative is an open-pit uranium mine in Retortillo, Salamanca, for which the authorities have denied permits. Berkeley is seeking up to 1.25 billion dollars from the Spanish government in arbitration before ICSID. The election of a new parliament, by itself, does not unblock the project or resolve the dispute.

The bullish thesis also coincides with the greater interest in uranium and nuclear energy cited in the coverage. These factors may influence expectations for the company, but they do not remove the administrative and legal obstacles or guarantee that the share price will maintain its gains.

Property companies: regulation and data centres, alongside interest rates

Merlin Properties rose 3.2% in the session analysed. Among the reasons investors considered was a possible reduction in regulatory pressure on the property sector. For Merlin, there was also an expectation that a proposal on renewable electricity supply for data centres might be made more flexible, an area relevant to its strategy.

Colonial could benefit, according to the analysts cited in the coverage, if uncertainty over the regime governing socimis were to diminish. These are hypotheses about regulatory changes, not measures that have been committed to. In addition, interest rates remain a decisive factor for property companies: the course of the European Central Bank's monetary policy may carry more weight than the political scenario in Spain.

Banking: the possible tax effect is not the only driver

Bank shares have also reacted on other occasions to political announcements, particularly when sector-specific levies were under discussion. The possibility of a less demanding tax framework under a centre-right government led some analysts to point to potential upside for banks. CaixaBank, given the amount it bears in tax on net interest income and fees, could be particularly sensitive to a possible repeal, according to the assessment cited in the coverage.

That does not mean the tax will disappear: this would depend on subsequent political decisions. Nor is it the only factor affecting bank share prices. Interest rates and each institution's results remain relevant variables. In the session described, Santander rose 4.5%, a move that the coverage linked especially to the outcome of the first round of Brazil's presidential election, so it cannot be attributed solely to the Spanish election announcement.

Companies with state holdings: the focus on management and appointments

A potential change in government could also reopen debate about the state's presence in listed companies and their management teams. The companies mentioned include Telefónica, Indra, Redeia and Aena, as well as CaixaBank because of the public stake referred to in the coverage. According to the published data, SEPI holds 10% of Telefónica; its stake in Indra rose from 14% to 28%, and the state owns 51% of Aena.

The possibility of reviewing stakes, appointments or industrial priorities is part of the political scenario described, not a confirmed change. Companies, their executives and shareholders may be affected by future decisions, but the sources do not establish that any such decisions have been agreed. In particular, the continuity of management teams would depend on the decisions taken after the election and on the applicable corporate governance mechanisms.

A reaction that coincides with other market factors

Elections can alter expectations about taxes, regulation and public ownership, but their influence on the Ibex has limits. The analysts cited describe the initial reaction as potentially short-lived and point out that interest rates, bond yields and conditions in European markets also affect share prices. Therefore, the movements in a single session show how some investors interpreted the news; on their own, they do not allow anyone to predict the election result, the policies that might be approved or the future performance of each stock.