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SearchThe World Bank projects growth of 3.2% for Peru and 2.3% for Colombia, above the 2.2% forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean. Energy, debt and El Niño are among the risks for a region where GDP per capita is expected to grow only slightly.
Peru and Colombia are projected to record the highest growth rates among the major economies of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026, according to forecasts from the World Bank. The institution estimates that Peru’s GDP will increase by 3.2% and Colombia’s by 2.3%, compared with the 2.2% forecast for the region as a whole.
Performance in the other major economies is expected to be more moderate: Argentina and Brazil would each grow by 2.1%; Mexico by 1.4%; and Chile by 0.8%. The comparison covers the major economies: several smaller countries, including the Dominican Republic and Paraguay, have higher projections than Peru.
The regional growth forecast for 2026 would be lower than the 2.4% recorded in 2025. The World Bank describes it as a sign of resilience in the face of external shocks, but warns that the average conceals different paths among countries and conditions that constrain economic activity.
Volatility in energy prices could make disinflation more difficult. If price pressures persist, central banks could maintain a cautious stance and prolong financial conditions that restrict credit and investment. For businesses, this environment may affect financing costs and demand, although the forecasts alone cannot anticipate how it will affect each sector or market.
Debt levels and interest costs also reduce the fiscal headroom of several countries and may divert resources intended for public investment. El Niño is an additional factor: the phenomenon could affect agriculture and hydroelectric power generation, potentially putting pressure on food and energy prices. These are risks identified by the institution, not confirmed impacts for 2026.
Exposure to commodities also helps explain the differences among economies. Exporters may benefit from high prices, while countries that import food and energy face higher costs. Industrial exports, meanwhile, have shown resilience despite trade tensions, according to the report.
The World Bank expects regional GDP per capita to grow only slightly in 2026. Therefore, the expansion of aggregate economic activity would not necessarily imply a significant increase in the income of the average resident. This limitation matters when assessing the economic reach of the forecasts: a positive growth rate alone does not show how its benefits are distributed or how much households’ purchasing power improves.
The figures are estimates that may change as external conditions, prices and economic policies evolve. They are not observed results and do not guarantee the performance of any particular country or company.
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