Poll averages give the PP an advantage and put Vox in a pivotal position to form a government

Poll averages published ahead of the general election Pedro Sánchez has announced for November 29, 2026, point to two shared trends: the PP is the leading party, and Vox would be decisive for a possible right-wing majority. However, the estimates are not identical and should be read as snapshots compiled from different polls and methods, not as advance election results.

The PP leads the averages, with differences in estimated vote share

RTVE’s average, based on data as of October 5 and published on the 7th, gives the PP 32.5% of the vote and the PSOE 26.3%. The difference between them is 6.2 points. El Periódico’s calculation shows a smaller gap: it estimates 31.5% for the conservatives and 26.7% for the Socialists, a difference of 4.8 points.

Europa Press, for its part, presents a roundup of polls and trends, with a weekly average based on surveys published during 2026 and a five-day moving average of polls. Its article does not provide specific figures in the text that can be compared with those of the other two averages.

The differences between RTVE’s and El Periódico’s estimates do not change the ranking of the two leading parties, but they do show why it is worth distinguishing between averages. Each calculation depends on the polls included, the period considered, and how they are weighted.

Vox would be decisive in the parliamentary arithmetic

In terms of seats, RTVE projects 137 for the PP and 65 for Vox. El Periódico estimates 136 for the PP and 66 for Vox. In both cases, their combined total would exceed 200 seats, above the 176 needed for an absolute majority in Congress. These averages therefore suggest that the PP would not reach that majority on its own and that Vox would play a central role in a potential investiture.

The projections also agree on reduced representation for Sumar and Podemos. RTVE estimates ten seats for Sumar and three for Podemos; El Periódico gives the same figures. Both put the PSOE at 104 seats. These are calculations from the respective averages, not a distribution of seats confirmed by the ballot boxes.

The method helps explain the variations

RTVE explains that its average brings together 146 polls from 22 polling firms published over the past year. For the calculation, it gives equal weight to polls with more than 1,200 interviews and progressively reduces the weight of each poll until it stops counting after 30 days.

The broadcaster also notes that the CIS often differs from the estimates of other polling firms: across the ten barometers from the past year, it calculated, on average, higher voting intention for the PSOE and lower voting intention for the PP than the average of other pollsters on comparable dates. According to RTVE, these polls can move the curve when they are included, although their influence decreases over time. This explanation concerns RTVE’s method and the data it analyzed; it does not mean that all averages treat polls in the same way.

In its own average, El Periódico describes a recent improvement for the PP and a decline for the PSOE, alongside gains for Vox. It also projects losses for Sumar compared with its 2023 result. The trajectory shown by these calculations depends on the polls included and may change as new surveys are released.

Projections, not results

The available figures are estimates ahead of an election announced for November 29. They do not determine who will win, which parties will reach agreements, or what the final composition of Congress will be. For companies analyzing the political landscape, the useful takeaway is more limited: the averages consulted point to an advantage for the PP and suggest that the projected parliamentary arithmetic would give Vox decisive influence over a right-wing majority, while differences in estimated vote shares and seats remain.