Aramco warns that replenishing oil reserves could take up to two years

A supply buffer under pressure

Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, warned at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London that global oil inventories are at “alarmingly low” levels. In his estimation, replenishing the inventories used during the seven months of conflict in the Middle East could take up to two years, even if disruptions end.

Nasser said regional supply has fallen by nearly 3 billion barrels and that more than 1 billion barrels have been drawn from inventories to cushion the shortfall. In his view, less than 6 billion barrels remain in commercial inventories, although much of that would not be available in practice. These are calculations and warnings attributed to Aramco’s chief executive, not a consensus market assessment.

Declared reserves are not the same as immediate supply

The executive noted that total inventory volumes can give an incomplete picture of the capacity to respond: some stored oil cannot be mobilized easily, or is needed to keep facilities operating. He also said that most of the stocks used came from companies’ commercial reserves, in addition to releases from strategic reserves agreed by governments.

These reserves can buy time during a disruption, but, according to Nasser, they do not replace the production needed to meet demand and rebuild inventories at the same time. As a result, even if export flows recover, replenishing stocks could prolong pressure on the market.

Hormuz and export alternatives

Disruptions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have been a central factor in the disruption. Nasser said oil flows are recovering through changes to routes, but that alternative shipments are more costly. The normalization of some flows, therefore, does not in itself mean that reserves have been restored or that logistical risks have disappeared.

The CEO said Aramco is studying additional routes for exporting Saudi crude and new storage facilities outside the country. He presented these initiatives as measures to reduce his customers’ exposure to future disruptions. He also urged governments to pay greater attention to energy security and resilience.

What this means for companies

For companies that depend on oil and its derivatives, the warning focuses on two distinct issues: the physical availability of supplies and the cost of transporting them. The recovery of exports does not guarantee that either factor will immediately return to its previous conditions, and replenishing inventories could compete with normal demand for some time.

The duration of this adjustment, its effect on prices and the evolution of routes will depend on how the conflict, production and maritime traffic change. Nasser’s statements describe the scenario anticipated by Aramco’s chief executive; they do not, by themselves, determine how the market will evolve.