BBVA Research raises its growth forecast for Spain in 2026 to 2.6%

BBVA Research has raised its forecast for Spanish GDP growth in 2026 from 2.4% to 2.6%, according to its Spain Outlook report published in October. For 2027, it keeps its estimate at 2.1%. These are projections by the research department, not results already observed.

The upward revision is supported by the momentum of domestic demand, employment and service exports. However, BBVA Research warns that higher oil and gas prices, together with tighter financial conditions, could moderate activity and add pressure on prices.

Energy, a risk to growth and prices

According to the research department’s estimates, rising energy costs could subtract between 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth and add between 0.8 and 0.9 points to inflation in Spain through the end of 2027. BBVA Research forecasts inflation of 3.6% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.

The report notes that households may initially cushion the impact on their purchasing power by reducing savings or using credit, while fiscal policy may temporarily contain part of the effect on incomes and costs. But these mechanisms become less effective if higher prices persist, raising the risk that the adjustment will affect consumption and investment. As BBVA Research puts it, “the longer the increase in energy costs persists, the greater its impact on activity.”

The research department also estimates that a shift to a scenario of higher interest rates would have a negative effect of 0.3 percentage points on average growth in 2026 and 2027. The impact could particularly affect decisions sensitive to the cost of financing, although the report does not present this estimate as an inevitable outcome.

Consumption and services underpin the forecasts

BBVA Research projects that private consumption will grow by 3.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Factors it says would support it include the projected evolution of employment—2.4% and 2%, respectively—the reduction in the savings rate and the increase in household wealth, supported by the value of real estate assets. At the same time, it expects prices and interest rates to moderate spending growth.

Exports are expected to follow different paths depending on the sector. BBVA Research forecasts that service exports will grow by 6.7% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027. By contrast, it estimates a 0.6% decline in goods exports this year, attributing it to rising costs and a lack of stronger momentum in the European economy; for 2027, it projects a recovery of 2.1%.

The outlook for investment is also uneven: the report anticipates firmer performance in machinery and equipment than in other components, and forecasts an acceleration in construction in 2027. However, it identifies uncertainty and more expensive credit as potential restraints.

External uncertainty and risks for businesses

BBVA Research identifies the international environment as one of the main sources of uncertainty. In addition to energy and interest rates, it cites possible geopolitical, climate-related and trade disruptions, as well as tensions in debt markets if higher inflation leads central banks to respond with tighter monetary conditions.

For businesses, the scenario combines a still-positive growth forecast with risks that may affect costs, financing and demand. According to the report itself, the scale of these effects will depend on how energy prices and financial conditions evolve; therefore, the growth and inflation figures should be read as estimates subject to change, not as certainties.