Parti Québécois returns to power and proposes referendum after January 2029

The Parti Québécois (PQ) won the provincial election on October 5 and will return to government in Quebec after more than a decade in opposition. Its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, is poised to become the province’s next premier, but the party did not win an absolute majority: provisional results cited in news coverage give it 59 of the National Assembly’s 127 seats, five short of the number needed to govern alone.

The result opens a new political chapter in Canada’s French-speaking province and brings the possibility of an independence referendum back to the center of the debate. It does not, however, mean that the vote will take place immediately: Plamondon has proposed waiting until after January 2029, when Donald Trump’s presidential term in the United States ends.

A minority government will have to negotiate for support

The lack of a majority will force the PQ to seek support from other parties to sustain its government and advance its agenda. Provisional counts cited in news reports put the Liberals at 40 seats, the Conservatives at 19, and Québec solidaire at nine. The figures may vary depending on when the count is taken; the news coverage consulted described some results as awaiting confirmation.

The parliamentary arithmetic also affects the sovereignty pledge. France 24 reported that the Liberals and Conservatives oppose an independence referendum. The PQ’s election victory therefore does not mean it has enough support to hold the vote or pass the measures needed to call it.

The vote is a promise, not a decided outcome

Plamondon has tied the referendum timetable to the need for a debate that, he has said, can take place calmly and without the uncertainty associated with U.S. politics. It would be Quebec’s third referendum of this kind: the previous ones were held in 1980 and 1995. In the latter, the option of remaining in Canada prevailed by a narrow margin, according to France 24.

News coverage also notes that recent polls show independence has minority support: DW cites 31% in favor, and France 24 about 30%. Those figures describe public opinion as measured in those polls; they do not predict the outcome of a future vote. The election result, meanwhile, may reflect various factors. France 24 cites discontent over the cost of living and concerns about protecting French as factors associated with the PQ’s gains, alongside the sovereignty issue.

Cost of living, housing, and trade among immediate priorities

In his first speech after the victory, Plamondon promised to govern for all Quebecers and work with the other parties. He also announced an urgent economic update in the fall and measures to address homelessness before winter. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney congratulated him and expressed his willingness to work together on issues such as supporting businesses and workers affected by U.S. tariffs, creating jobs, and building homes.

For businesses, the immediate takeaway is that Quebec will have a government with a different political agenda, but one that is subject to parliamentary negotiations. The sources do not detail specific regulatory or economic changes resulting from the election. Uncertainty over a possible referendum depends on future decisions and the PQ’s ability to secure support; it should not be confused with an already approved change to the province’s political or economic framework.