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SearchThe oil company estimates an indicative margin of $42 per barrel, compared with $24 in the second quarter. The forecast comes amid a tight market and lower utilization of its refineries.
Shell expects its indicative refining margin to reach $42 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, compared with $24 in the previous quarter. The figure, disclosed on October 7 in a pre-results update, nearly doubles the second-quarter figure.
The indicator reflects the difference between the cost of crude oil and the value of refined products, such as gasoline and diesel. It is not equivalent to the company’s total profit, nor does it alone confirm how much the division will earn: results also depend on volumes processed and other operational and financial factors.
Coverage of the announcement links the improvement in margins to lower fuel availability and supply disruptions. The factors cited include tensions in the Middle East and disruptions affecting refineries and product flows; some reports also highlight attacks on Russian facilities and restrictions on diesel exports.
Despite this margin-supportive environment, Shell expects its refineries to operate at a utilization rate of between 93% and 97%, below the 102% recorded in the second quarter. The company attributed some of the constraints to low water levels on the Rhine, which affected operations at the Rheinland refinery in Germany. Thus, the higher expected margin does not mean Shell will process more crude oil.
Shell also raised its forecast for integrated gas production in the quarter to between 740,000 and 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared with 631,000 in the second quarter. According to available coverage, the revision incorporates, among other factors, the acquisition of ARC Resources, completed in early September.
In the opposite direction, the company forecast a lower indicative margin for its chemicals business: $208 per tonne, compared with $270 in the previous quarter. These figures show that prospects vary across divisions and that the refining margin is only one part of the operational picture.
Full third-quarter results are scheduled for October 29. Until they are published, the figures disclosed are forecasts and preliminary indicators, not confirmed quarterly results.
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