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SearchThe company expects integrated gas production of 740,000 to 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the third quarter of 2026 and forecasts a refining margin of $42 per barrel. These are estimates ahead of the publication of full results.
Shell raised its forecast for integrated gas production in the third quarter of 2026 to a range of 740,000 to 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. The previous estimate was 570,000 to 630,000 barrels per day. In the second quarter, the company produced 631,000, according to available coverage.
The revision partly reflects the incorporation of ARC Resources, whose acquisition was completed in early September, as well as other contributions that were not included in previous forecasts. The new range should therefore not be interpreted solely as a recovery in production from existing assets.
The company forecast an indicative refining margin of $42 per barrel for the third quarter, up from $24 in the previous period. Coverage links the improvement to fuel shortages and supply disruptions in energy markets, amid tensions in the Middle East.
Shell also expects to maintain high levels of activity in its processing operations, although it lowered its estimated refinery utilization to a range of 93% to 97%. Factors cited include low water levels on the Rhine, which have affected activity at the Rhineland refinery.
The forecasts point to different trends across segments: alongside the expected increase in gas and refining, Shell projected a decline in its indicative chemicals margin, from $270 to $208 per tonne. The company also put its upstream production forecast at 1.735 to 1.835 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, and its liquefied natural gas forecast at 7.2 to 7.6 million metric tonnes.
These figures are operational estimates for July–September, not confirmed quarterly results or a complete measure of the group’s profitability. Indicative margins are not, on their own, equivalent to net profit: the financial result will depend on the company’s operations as a whole and on the data Shell publishes with its full results.
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